The outlook for the 2026 college graduating class has worsened sharply, as data shows employers’ hiring plans have stalled, job market ratings have declined, and competition in the workforce has intensified due to automation and visa-based work programs.
Employers predict that the job market for college graduates in 2026 will be the weakest in half a decade, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal, based on data from the National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE).
A survey of 183 companies conducted between August 7 and September 22 found that 51 percent of respondents rated the job market for new college graduates as “poor” or “fair,” a sentiment not seen at this level since the COVID-19-era downturn in 2020-21. Just two percent of employers rated the market as “excellent.”
The hiring slowdown follows a wave of large-scale layoffs by major employers, including Amazon, UPS, and Verizon — the latter reportedly preparing to cut 15,000 jobs, the largest workforce reduction ever.
While overall employment for college graduates is technically expected to increase by 1.6 percent in 2026, that represents a steep decline from previous projections for the Class of 2025. Historical trends show that spring hiring often falls short of previous fall estimates. The difference is reflected in NACE’s year-over-year employment projections: from a nearly 30 percent jump in spring 2022 projections compared to 2021, projections have since fallen sharply, including a decline for the Class of 2024.
According to data from the job search platform Handshake, full-time job postings in August fell by more than 16 percent compared to the same period a year earlier, while applications per position increased by 26 percent. More than 60 percent of 2026 graduates surveyed said they were pessimistic about their career prospects. Former recruiter Giavanna Vega, who was laid off from Automation Anywhere in 2023, said companies “don’t know where to invest” because of the uncertainty and tariffs associated with artificial intelligence. “They don’t have the training,” she noted of recent graduates, many of whom are being overlooked for jobs increasingly filled by laid-off mid-career professionals.
The unemployment rate for recent college graduates hit 4.8 percent in June, the highest in four years and above the national average. New graduates are now competing not only with each other but also with recently laid-off workers and foreign graduates entering the U.S. workforce through visa programs.
Increased scrutiny of visa programs such as the H-1B and OPT (optional practical training) has allowed hundreds of thousands of foreign graduates to work in U.S. jobs originally reserved for American students. The Department of Justice (DOJ) under Assistant Attorney General Harmit Dillon has pledged increased enforcement of long-standing visa laws to curb what officials describe as a systemic displacement of domestic talent.
Eric Sell, a senior attorney in the DOJ’s Civil Rights Division, stressed that the administration is determined to hold companies accountable for how they treat American workers, especially during times of economic turmoil and rapid technological change. He stressed that under President Donald Trump, technological advances “will never be used as an excuse to forget the workers who built this country” and warned that those who try to exploit the chaotic growth for corporate profit “will be held accountable.”
Public frustration is mounting. A new Cygnal poll shows that 44 percent of likely voters say companies are exploiting the H-1B system. Among undecided voters, 43 percent agree with that assessment. Notably, the backlash against these visa programs is strongest among working-class Americans and voters without a college degree, key constituencies ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
In 2024 alone, the Biden administration has approved work permits for approximately 400,000 foreign graduates through the Optional Practical Training (OPT) program—a 45 percent increase over 2020 levels under President Trump. Former U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services Director Joe Edlow and other Trump administration officials have warned that programs like OPT depress wages and displace American graduates, especially in high-demand STEM and business fields.
The transfer from foreign student to American worker also begins at the admissions level. Breitbart News commentator Rich Kaye asked why taxpayer-funded public universities are increasingly filling their seats with international students who later convert their F-1 student visas into work permits. “When a public university replaces a Georgia student with an F-1 student in a high-demand area,” Kay wrote, “it increases the pressure on tomorrow’s H-1B visa pipeline in the very sectors where Americans could be trained to fill the jobs.”
That pressure is already being felt by recent graduates like Nalin Haley, who told UnHerd that many in his peer group are struggling just to get started. “It’s been a year and a half, and not one of them has a job — not one,” he said. “I’m angry about it because I have to try to help my friends find jobs when their parents got jobs right away — not just out of college, but out of high school.”